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Why Americans might be getting worried about the job marketIn some ways, Americans' growing pessimism in the job market is perplexing. That's because the job market has become more challenging than it was a couple of years ago, when the Great Resignation was at its peak. So, it's possible that some Americans in certain industries are facing a job market where openings are far from abundant. For example, there's some evidence that the job market for high-wage roles has cooled over the past year. Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told Business Insider earlier this month after April's labor market figures were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that it is "no longer a white-hot labor market" or a job "candidate's market in every industry where workers can get whatever they want."
Persons: , they'd, hasn't, What's, Joanne Hsu, Julia Pollak Organizations: Service, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, Business, NY, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New, Fed, LinkedIn, NY Fed, University of, Labor Locations: York
Gold slips as dollar firms, traders brood on rate cut timing
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,311.07 per ounce as of 0235 GMT. The dollar index rose 0.1%, making greenback-priced gold more expensive for other currency holders. If the upcoming reports show scary inflation, then the Fed can't cut rates and it will pressure gold, he added. Bullion is used as a hedge against inflation, but higher rates reduce the appeal of holding the non-yielding asset. Markets are currently seeing a 65% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, as per CME's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Ilya Spivak, Neel Kashkari, Spivak Organizations: University of, Minneapolis Locations: U.S, China's, China
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Dow, Jeff Marks, Marks, WTI, Apple, Apple's, Locker, Ford, Morgan Stanley, Gamble, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, University of, Constellation, Club, West Texas, Islamic, Palo Alto Networks, Google, JPMorgan, Securities and Exchange Commission, Abbott Laboratories, Procter, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Iran, Israel, U.S, Damascus, Syria, Wells Fargo
By underweighting the experience of certain groups — especially lower-income or frontline workers — policymakers could learn the wrong lessons from the post-pandemic economy. The Great DivergenceIf you ask Americans how the economy is doing, the general sentiment can be summed up in one word: bad. Similarly, the Conference Board's consumer confidence data isn't quite at its post-Great Recession lows, but it's far below its 2017-19 average. The ASEC data uses a very large sample to provide the best possible insight into households' economic well-being, with more than 75,000 households participating. Similarly, the focus on the prospect of a recession soared, even outdoing the period in 2020 when the economy was actually in a recession.
Persons: it's, , Pew Organizations: University of, Conference, Labor Statistics, Government, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NFL, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, BLS, Census, Federal Locations: telemarketers, nonresponses
Now, a group of them has created an interesting model that suggests much of people's dissatisfaction with the economy comes down to interest rates. In fact, the impact of rising interest rates isn't directly accounted for anywhere in the official CPI report — even though they've also contributed to surging car payments and made credit card debt much more costly. That's why the economists developed their own inflation measure, and they think it provided a more accurate prediction of economic sentiment. Cramer said additional evidence for the impact of interest rates on consumer sentiment has come in recent months. Between November and January, the Michigan consumer sentiment index saw its biggest two-month increase since 1991 — just as mortgage rates fell from their recent peak.
Persons: , Judd Cramer, Larry Summers, they've, hasn't, Harvard's Cramer, Cramer, pocketbooks, it's, Joe Biden's Organizations: Service, Business, National Bureau of Economic Research, Harvard University, International Monetary Fund, of Labor Statistics, University of, Harvard, BLS, Federal, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan
Last October, 21% of the roughly 1,000 Americans surveyed by Gallup said the economy was “getting better,” according to survey data provided to BI. Forty-two percent of respondents said they trusted Donald Trump more than Biden to handle the economy — 31% trusted Biden over Trump. It could mainly be Democrats who are feeling better about the economyThere could be several reasons Americans’ growing optimism about the economy improving hasn’t translated into better polling for Biden. Republicans also seemed more optimistic, with their sentiment growing by nearly 10 points from January to February. The last time Democrats’ sentiment was about as low as Republicans’ February level was in the late summer of 2020.
Persons: , Joe Biden, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump, Biden, he’s, Paul Krugman, hasn’t Organizations: Service, Business, University of, Gallup, BI, Financial Times, University of Michigan, Biden, Trump, ABC, Republicans Locations: Michigan
WASHINGTON (AP) — A measure of consumer sentiment ticked higher this month, after soaring in December and January, underscoring that Americans are starting to feel better about the economy after several years of gloom. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, released Friday, ticked up to 79.6 in February, from 79 in January. Still, consumer sentiment remains 6% below its long-run average after the worst spike in inflation in four decades pushed up the cost of groceries, rent, gas, and other necessities, frustrating many consumers. “Consumers continued to express confidence that the slowdown in inflation and strength in labor markets would continue.”Improving consumer confidence can often lead to greater spending, which can support economic growth. Since the pandemic, however, consumer spending has been mostly healthy even when measures of sentiment were quite low.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Joanne Hsu, “ Consumers Organizations: WASHINGTON, University of, Locations: underscoring
Listen, I'm not saying that all the good vibes Americans are suddenly feeling about the economy boil down to stocks, gas prices, and eggs. What improved America's economic vibes was basically three things: the soaring stock market, falling gas prices, and eggs. Research shows that consumers feel more pessimistic when gas prices go up — James Surowiecki points out in The Atlantic that high gas prices also make people less happy and more likely to hate the president. If oil prices stay relatively low and, in turn, keep gas prices down, less exasperated drivers could help Joe Biden keep his job come November. There are all sorts of geopolitical threats and unknowns that could throw global trade and oil prices (and thus gas prices) into chaos.
Persons: I'm, there's, There's, Jordan Weissmann, , It's, James Surowiecki, Joe Biden, they're, Emily Stewart Organizations: University of, Dow, Federal Reserve Bank of San, AAA, Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Times, Business Locations: America, The
Over 90% of Gen Zers and millennials said they're considering leaving their jobs, per a LinkedIn survey. The increase reflects young workers' desire for higher pay — but also confidence in the labor market. But as this uncertainty recedes, many young Americans appear ready to jump back into the job market. While these desires were prevalent among all generations, young Americans had the highest expectations for a pay bump in 2024. If young workers don't receive the raises or promotions they expect, this could provide them with additional motivation to leave their employers.
Persons: Gen Zers, millennials, , Zers, Gen Xers, Kantenga Organizations: Service, LinkedIn, Censuswide, Boomers, University of, Young
Yellen to step up campaign touting Biden's economic record
  + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks alongside Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo during a Cabinet Meeting at the White House on June 06, 2023 in Washington, DC. The Biden administration is dispatching U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Chicago and Milwaukee this week as part of a stepped-up domestic travel schedule to sell Americans on the benefits of President Joe Biden's economic policies. Yellen will make the case in remarks to the Economic Club of Chicago on Thursday that the pandemic recovery was faster, fairer and more transformative than previous economic recoveries, the Treasury said late on Sunday. Yellen has previously touted Biden's investment legislation, taking trips to North Carolina and Boston in recent weeks, but has avoided direct comparisons with former President Donald Trump. After her speech in Chicago, Yellen will travel to Milwaukee on Jan. 26 to visit a worker training facility, partly funded by Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief law, the American Rescue Plan Act.
Persons: Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, Gina Raimondo, Biden, Joe Biden's, Yellen, Donald Trump, Trump, Nikki Haley Organizations: White House, U.S, Treasury, Economic, of Chicago, Trump, Trump Administration, United Nations, University of, Biden's, American Locations: Washington ,, Chicago, Milwaukee, North Carolina, Boston, New Hampshire
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauge surged in January to 78.8, the highest since July 2021. Year-ahead inflation expectations softened to 2.9%, hitting the lowest since December 2020. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment gauge jumped to 78.8 in January, the highest mark since July 2021. "Encouragingly for the Federal Reserve consumer inflation expectations fell in January, with 1-year inflation expectations falling to a 3-year low in January." Long-run inflation expectations eased to 2.8%, below the 2.9%-3.0% range seen for 26 of the last 30 months, the survey noted.
Persons: , Sam Millette, Sal Naro, headcount Organizations: of, Service, University of, Commonwealth Financial Network, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Commerce Department, Downside, Busines
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021 and up 21.4% from a year ago. On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey's director. "Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations," Hsu said. Along with the improved outlook on general conditions, survey respondents displayed more confidence that inflation is coming down. The outlook for the inflation rate a year from now declined to 2.9%, down from 3.1% in December for the lowest reading since December 2020.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Hsu, Andrew Hunter, Stocks Organizations: Veteran, The Department of Labor, The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey, Consumers, Republicans, Federal Reserve, AAA, Capital Economics Locations: Long Beach , California
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. Nvidia forecast overall revenue above Wall Street targets, but the company warned U.S. export curbs could lead to a steep drop in fourth-quarter sales in China. Shares of Nvidia had initially slipped in premarket trading, but reversed course to climb 1.1%. The central bank's guarded stance is weighing on enthusiasm about rate cuts coming later, Streeter said. ET, Dow e-minis were down 5 points, or 0.01%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 6 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 37.25 points, or 0.23%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, Sam Altman, Streeter, Caterpillar, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Deere, Co, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Wall, U.S, Hargreaves, OpenAI, Microsoft, Big Tech, University of, Dow e, Deere & Co, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China
US stocks climbed Friday, with the Dow jumping by almost 400 points. Stocks rebounded after falling on Thursday to snap an eight-day winning streak. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks jumped on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining almost 400 points and the Nasdaq adding more than 2%. Meanwhile, US consumers' long-term inflation expectations rose to the highest since 2011, according to a preliminary November report from the University of Michigan.
Persons: Stocks, , Jerome Powell, Joanne Hsu Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, University of Michigan, University of Locations: Gaza, Ukraine
Expectations the Fed was likely done with rate hikes sent the S&P 500 up 5.85% last week and the Nasdaq up 6.61%, their biggest weekly jumps since November 2022. The session marks the sixth straight advance for the Dow and S&P 500 and seventh straight gain for the Nasdaq. The streak is the longest for the S&P 500 since early June, since July for the Dow and since January for the Nasdaq. A total of 403 companies in the S&P 500 have reported profits through Friday the third quarter, with 81.6% surpassing analyst estimates, per LSEG data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 113 new lows.
Persons: Bumble, CME's, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Stephen Massocca, Brendan McDermid, Walt Disney, Erik Carlson, Whitney Wolfe, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Wedbush Securities, Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Dow, University of, Dish Network, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New, San Francisco, New York City, U.S
A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Markets will look for more clarity on the Fed's intentions from officials speaking later in the week, including Chair Jerome Powell, and voting members such as New York Fed chief John Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Expectations the Fed was likely done with rate hikes sent the S&P 500 up 5.85% last week and the Nasdaq up 6.61%, their biggest weekly jumps since November 2022. A total of 403 companies in the S&P 500 have reported profits through Friday the third quarter, with 81.6% surpassing analyst estimates, per LSEG data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 99 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, CME's, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Stephen Massocca, Walt Disney, Erik Carlson, Whitney Wolfe, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Wedbush Securities, University of, Dow Jones, Dish Network, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New, San Francisco
Morning Bid: Spiky quarter ends in uneasy market calm
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. At 4.53% on Friday, the 10-year benchmark was some 15 basis points off Thursday's peak and two-year yields fell back to their lowest since Sept. 18. Some optimism from Beijing about a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden helped. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* US August PCE inflation gauge, personal income and spending. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Thursday's, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Lifeng, Federal Reserve's, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, it's, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, John Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Organization of, Petroleum, Wall Street Journal, Federal, Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, HK, Reuters, Mercedes, Benz, Chicago, University of, Louis Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Washington, Hong Kong, Nio
The U.S. seemed to be winning its battle against inflation, but the latest consumer price index data showed inflation rose more than expected. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment August survey indicated consumers' one-year inflation expectations were at 3.3%, marking three consecutive months of stability. Inflation expectations, or the rate at which consumers expect prices to rise or fall in the future, can influence higher prices in the economy. Inflation expectations play a crucial role in the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. But consumer expectations of inflation are still above the Fed's 2% inflation rate target.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, It's, Hsu, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Barry Glassman Organizations: University of Michigan, The University of, Consumers, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Sahm Consulting, Federal, Kansas City, Wealth Services Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by 2.5 basis points to 4.347%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading more than 2 basis points higher at 5.056%. Markets are pricing in a 99% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this week, according to CME's FedWatch tool, which gauges pricing in fed funds futures. The figures were followed by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report on Friday, which reflected a significant decline of inflation expectations. Before the Fed's rate decision on Wednesday, several reports from the housing sector are due, including September's Housing Market Index data on Monday, as well as building permit and housing starts data on Tuesday.
Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, PPI, University of
One popular explanation, inflation, has fallen in recent months. But if inflation is the winning explanation, why do Americans still hate the economy? In May, year-over-year wage growth outpaced inflation for the first time in two years, and it continues to do so. Inflation, however, or specifically the gap between inflation and wage growth, is far from the only explanation that has been proposed for Americans' apparent pessimism about the economy. "If a recession were to begin at some point next year, joblessness would likely rise, weighing on inflation but wage growth as well."
Persons: they've, they're, Sarah Foster, Joe Biden's, Foster, joblessness Organizations: Service, University of Michigan's, of Labor Statistics, Journal Locations: Wall, Silicon, Quinnipiac
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, July 20, 2023. Stock futures were little changed Sunday night as investors awaited a batch of economic data in the week ahead and earnings from two major tech companies. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked lower by 2 points, or 0.01%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures edged higher by 0.06% and 0.1%, respectively. Investors are looking forward to key inflation data in the week ahead after a string of stronger-than-expected economic data points last week renewed worries that the Federal Reserve could raise rates more than previously expected.
Persons: Yung, Yu Ma, Ma Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Investors, Federal Reserve, Traders, CME Group's, BMO Wealth Management, CNBC, CPI, University of Michigan's Consumer, Oracle, Adobe, Apple Locations: New York City, China
Some said the downgrade to June's data meant the rise in the PPI last month was in line with expectations. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8% after gaining 0.2% in June, boosted by a lower base of comparison last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices were unchanged last month after falling 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core PPI increased 2.7%, matching June's rise. As with all the July inflation data, the pick-up in the annual core PCE rate is due to unfavorable base effects.
Persons: Bill Adams, Will Compernolle, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Consumers, University of, CPI, Fed, Thomson Locations: August WASHINGTON, Dallas, U.S, New York, disinflation
Adding to uncertainty was the start of the second quarter's final week on Monday, weeks ahead of the financial reporting season. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2022. But Carnival (CCL.N) slumped 7.6% after the cruise operator forecast third-quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations. The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 53 new highs and 154 new lows. On U.S. exchanges 9.28 billion shares changed hands compared with the 11.62 billion average for the last 20 sessions.
Persons: Tesla, Aston Martin, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Jerome Powell, Carol Schleif, they've, Schleif, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Goldman Sachs, UK's Aston Martin, decliners, Sinéad Carew, Sruthi Shankar, Johann M, Shinjini Ganguli, Richard Chang Organizations: Pfizer, Aston, Dow, Nasdaq, Monday, U.S . State Department, Meta Platforms Inc, Inc, Tesla Inc, BMO, Investors, Independent, Alliance, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, University of, Pfizer Inc, UBS, Ares Management, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Russia, Minneapolis, Charlotte, North Carolina, New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
June 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday, as investors were wary of making riskier bets after Russia's aborted weekend mutiny. Investors were uncertain about the implications of the rebellion by Russian mercenaries that raised questions about President Vladimir Putin's future. Growth stocks weighed the most on the main indexes, with Meta Platforms Inc (META.O), Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) and Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) falling sharply. With this uncertainty in mind Schleif noted that investors were taking some profits in growth stocks that had advanced sharply this year. But Carnival (CCL.N) slumped after the cruise operator forecast third-quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations.
Persons: Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Jerome Powell, Carol Schleif, they've, Schleif, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Goldman Sachs, UK's Aston Martin, Sinéad Carew, Sruthi Shankar, Johann M, Shinjini Ganguli, Richard Chang Organizations: Monday, U.S . State Department, Meta Platforms Inc, Inc, Tesla Inc, Nasdaq, BMO, Independent, Alliance, Dow Jones, University of, Pfizer Inc, UBS, Ares Management, Thomson Locations: Russia, Minneapolis, Charlotte, North Carolina, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
Technology (.SPLRCT) and real estate sectors (.SPLRCR) were the other top gainers among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) was down 19.60 points, or 0.06%, at 33,707.83, the S&P 500 (.SPX) was up 6.90 points, or 0.16%, at 4,355.23, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was up 51.68 points, or 0.38%, at 13,544.20. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.97-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and 1.37-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 17 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 37 new highs and 67 new lows. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tesla, Aston Martin, Jerome Powell, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, UK's Aston Martin, Lockheed Martin, Sruthi Shankar, Johann M, Shinjini Organizations: Pfizer, Aston, Dow, Nasdaq, Technology, University of, Dow Jones, Pfizer Inc, Inc, UBS, Tesla, Ares Management, Lockheed, Northrop Grumman Corp, Raytheon Technologies, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Russian, U.S, Russia, Bengaluru
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